soldier and child
Friday, November 12, 2004
So you were wondering about the Iraqi casualties...
When the Iraq war began, I read that the US military is prohibited from gathering information related to Iraqi casuaties. The US military has well developed methods and statistical models for calculating casualties. However, that sort of information is difficult to keep secret. Gathering no data would be the only way to ensure that no Iraqi casualty data could be leaked.
Still, I wondered how Iraqi military and civilian casualty counts compared to US and coalition counts. Recently, I read a news article about a study published by the Lancet, a UK medical journal, regarding the Lancet's report that "Making conservative assumptions we think that about 100,000 excess deaths, or more, have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq."
Still, I wondered how Iraqi military and civilian casualty counts compared to US and coalition counts. Recently, I read a news article about a study published by the Lancet, a UK medical journal, regarding the Lancet's report that "Making conservative assumptions we think that about 100,000 excess deaths, or more, have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq."
excerpts from the articleThat is the highest estimate that has been made publicly. It's a bit of a shock.
Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most of the violent deaths." Violent deaths were mainly attributed to coalition forces - and most individuals reportedly killed were women and children.
Violent deaths were mainly attributed to coalition forces - and most individuals reportedly killed were women and children.
Dr Les Roberts, who led the study, said: "Making conservative assumptions we think that about 100,000 excess deaths, or more, have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
The Lancet published research by scientists from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in the US city of Baltimore.
They gathered data on births and deaths since January 2002 from 33 clusters of 30 households each across Iraq.
Thursday, November 11, 2004
A Millennium Late and a Barrel Short
-----Original Message-----
From: Kimberly
Sent: Nov 10, 2004
Subject: Bush Looking Anew for Alaska Oil Drilling - EarthLink - Political News
Hooray! Oil costs will start to come down as we make progress!
Don't count on it. Oil is a non-renewable resource which will continue to go up in value and price. Exploration in Alaska is expensive and the extent and location of the reserves is unknown. Expect to pay more for gas from Alaska. There is also no evidence that sufficient oil can be drilled in Alaska to free us from our dependence on foreign oil which is the real problem. We still need to intervene in the Middle East in order to secure our oil supply.
Iraq has the second largest (after Saudi Arabia) oil reserves in the world and the exploration is already done and the reserves proved. We just need to set up an infrastructue in Iraq to get the oil out. The catch is that as long as the US intervenes in the Middle East, we will be targets for terrorists who find foreign intervention upsetting (to put it mildly). We can't stay in Saudi Arabia to secure the world's largest oil reserve because the peninsula is considered holy to too many of those Muslim folks.
Neo-cons thought that Iraq would present a good alternative to Saudi Arabia, but their strategy is running into some unexpected resistance and the US is drawing the ire of Islamic militants who suspect that the US wants to set up a permanent military presence in Iraq and export her oil to theUS using US oil companies, US workers. Their suspicions are in fact true, but we're doing it in their best interest which is why Rumsfeld, Cheney, Wolfowitz, et al can't understand why there is an insurgency going on.
I am forgetting about the increase in oil consumption overseas. In October, Greenspan noted in a speech that "Adding to the difficulties is the rising consumption of oil, especially in China and India, both of which are expanding economically in ways that are relatively energy intensive."
Greenspan along with many other economists (both conservative and liberal) believe that "... much of world oil supplies reside in potentially volatile areas of the world. Improving technology is reducing the energy intensity of industrial countries, and presumably recent oil price increases will accelerate the pace of displacement of energy-intensive production facilities. If history is any guide, oil will eventually be overtaken by less-costly alternatives well before conventional oil reserves run out. Indeed, oil displaced coal despite still vast untapped reserves of coal, and coal displaced wood without denuding our forest lands."
By "reducing energy intensity", he means using less oil. This all means that oil prices will remain high due to steadily increasing world demand, but the high prices will accelerate the pace of developing alternatives.
Alaska doesn't matter one way or the other. By the time Alaska can come online, we may not need it anymore. The benefit of development in the Alaskan wilderness is short term and temporary job creation during the exploration and building phases, and short term windfall profits to the owners of a very few companies. There are no long-term benefits to development in Alaska. We probably don't fully understand the long-term risks of developing Alaska. Some try to suggest that the risks are only to the environment, the wildlife and man's spirit; however, we are learning a little late about the connectedness of the various elements that make the Earth uniquely life supporting.
From: Kimberly
Sent: Nov 10, 2004
Subject: Bush Looking Anew for Alaska Oil Drilling - EarthLink - Political News
Hooray! Oil costs will start to come down as we make progress!
Don't count on it. Oil is a non-renewable resource which will continue to go up in value and price. Exploration in Alaska is expensive and the extent and location of the reserves is unknown. Expect to pay more for gas from Alaska. There is also no evidence that sufficient oil can be drilled in Alaska to free us from our dependence on foreign oil which is the real problem. We still need to intervene in the Middle East in order to secure our oil supply.
Iraq has the second largest (after Saudi Arabia) oil reserves in the world and the exploration is already done and the reserves proved. We just need to set up an infrastructue in Iraq to get the oil out. The catch is that as long as the US intervenes in the Middle East, we will be targets for terrorists who find foreign intervention upsetting (to put it mildly). We can't stay in Saudi Arabia to secure the world's largest oil reserve because the peninsula is considered holy to too many of those Muslim folks.
Neo-cons thought that Iraq would present a good alternative to Saudi Arabia, but their strategy is running into some unexpected resistance and the US is drawing the ire of Islamic militants who suspect that the US wants to set up a permanent military presence in Iraq and export her oil to theUS using US oil companies, US workers. Their suspicions are in fact true, but we're doing it in their best interest which is why Rumsfeld, Cheney, Wolfowitz, et al can't understand why there is an insurgency going on.
I am forgetting about the increase in oil consumption overseas. In October, Greenspan noted in a speech that "Adding to the difficulties is the rising consumption of oil, especially in China and India, both of which are expanding economically in ways that are relatively energy intensive."
Greenspan along with many other economists (both conservative and liberal) believe that "... much of world oil supplies reside in potentially volatile areas of the world. Improving technology is reducing the energy intensity of industrial countries, and presumably recent oil price increases will accelerate the pace of displacement of energy-intensive production facilities. If history is any guide, oil will eventually be overtaken by less-costly alternatives well before conventional oil reserves run out. Indeed, oil displaced coal despite still vast untapped reserves of coal, and coal displaced wood without denuding our forest lands."
By "reducing energy intensity", he means using less oil. This all means that oil prices will remain high due to steadily increasing world demand, but the high prices will accelerate the pace of developing alternatives.
Alaska doesn't matter one way or the other. By the time Alaska can come online, we may not need it anymore. The benefit of development in the Alaskan wilderness is short term and temporary job creation during the exploration and building phases, and short term windfall profits to the owners of a very few companies. There are no long-term benefits to development in Alaska. We probably don't fully understand the long-term risks of developing Alaska. Some try to suggest that the risks are only to the environment, the wildlife and man's spirit; however, we are learning a little late about the connectedness of the various elements that make the Earth uniquely life supporting.
Tuesday, November 09, 2004
Word of the Year: kakistocracy
kakistocracy: : government by the worst
etymology: Greek kakistos (superl. of kakos bad) + English -cracy
etymology: Greek kakistos (superl. of kakos bad) + English -cracy
Cacti and other Details
The news stories on Theo Van Gogh's memorial services attributed the leaving of cactus plants by mourners to his having had a "prickly personality." Yet at least one story reported that Van Gogh used to give guests a cactus plant when they appeared on his television talk show. Obviously, mourners left cactus plants because they were a trademark of Van Gogh.
This is a minor detail, but sometimes a minor detail can suddenly make one aware of the tenuousness of the faith we can put in all our sources of news. When you read a novel the author asks you to suspend belief for the duration. When you read a media article, you are asked to excercise belief. In other words, the media asks us to suspend disbelief.
Since beginning this blog, I read news articles differently, more critically. When you begin to deconstruct the information flow of the media, you must begin to question.
This is a minor detail, but sometimes a minor detail can suddenly make one aware of the tenuousness of the faith we can put in all our sources of news. When you read a novel the author asks you to suspend belief for the duration. When you read a media article, you are asked to excercise belief. In other words, the media asks us to suspend disbelief.
Since beginning this blog, I read news articles differently, more critically. When you begin to deconstruct the information flow of the media, you must begin to question.
Silencing the Artist: Theo Van Gogh
Services were held today for Theo Van Gogh, the Dutch filmaker who was murdered by a suspected Islamic extremist a week ago. His murder has been linked to "Submission," a short film he directed which criticized the treatment of women under Islam. The film was controversial and ill-received in the Muslim community.
Mourners "...left cactuses, a tribute to the filmmaker's prickly nature, and bottles of beer."
Mourners "...left cactuses, a tribute to the filmmaker's prickly nature, and bottles of beer."
"Van Gogh was a cherub-faced cynic who loved to irritate - and sometimes insult - those he felt were too sensitive.Obviously, mourners left cactus plants because they were a trademark of Van Gogh."I'm deeply religious - I worship a pig," he once said. "I call him Allah."
During his award-winning career, he lost several jobs for crossing boundaries of good taste and had complaints filed against him by Jews, Christians and Muslims.
On his TV interview show, "A Nice Chat," Van Gogh wore suspenders, chain-smoked and gave his guests cactus plants as parting gifts."
Monday, November 08, 2004
Word of November: demagogue
demagogue: a leader who makes use of popular prejudices and false claims and promises in order to gain power
Does nice matter?
Since the sudden ending to the Kobe Bryant criminal prosecution, I have been wondering if I can be an enthusiastic Lakers fan while Kobe Bryant is the star of the organization, and it turns out I'm not alone.
The L.A. Times writer Elizabeth Kaye wrote an article about the subject and concluded that "After watching him play in the preseason, it's a moot point. Watch him and you'll get caught up, even if you don't especially want to, and his game will overwhelm the question of "should we?" and its cool, detached considerations."
She asserts that the qualities that made him an accused rapist are the very qualities that make him a great basketball player. She puts forward the opinion that "to use those talents requires that your own needs are met first. It requires an unshakable belief in one's abilities that we diminish by labeling it conceit or arrogance. We forget that selfishness and arrogance are job qualifications for an artist. Without arrogance, the canvas never fills with images of the lowly sunflower, the high note is never struck. There is no leaping into the air in defiance of gravity." In one paragraph Ms. Kaye links Bryant's athletic prowess to Van Gogh's artistic ability and the grace of the lyric soprano reaching for high notes.
Balderdash. Nice matters.
Mr. Bryant brought himself down all by himself. There was no Ken Starr, no twenty million dollar investigation, no struggle with mental illness.
If Mr. Bryant needs to meet his needs first in order to use his talents, what sort of needs is Ms. Kaye referring to? The need to treat a teenage girl like a hooker?
Unbelievably, Ms. Kaye calls rape an "abortive tryst." A woman has to have unbelievable courage to come forward with a rape charge in a society where the women are even more brutal and less supportive than the men.
Since when are "selfish and arrogance" "job qualifications for an artist"?! Apologist bullshit.
If people want to like Kobe Bryant in spite of what he has done, that's their business. If people want to imagine that Kobe Bryant is the innocent victim in this saga, then let them sleep with their cloudy illusions. But don't try to tell me that none of this matters because an artist must be a monster to be great.
We are succombing to a warped cynicism as a society. People find it easier to believe that a nineteen year old girl from a loving, supportive, middle class family is some sort of brilliantly devious and deviant, money-grubbing whore, rather than believe that one of the world's most successfully aggressive athletes didn't take no for an answer. He's aggressive enough to get rid of Shaq and Phil Jackson, two stars of basketball, but he's just a poor victim when he runs up against a teenage girl. Right. Teenage girls from supportive familes and small town backgrounds are never naive, never too trusting. No, they are as coldly calculating, as materialistic and unscrupulous as Don King. And if you believe that I have a fine plot of land in the Gobi desert that I would like to sell you.
And as to the argument that Mr. Bryant is just a basketball player, then he shouldn't mind losing all those plush endorsement contracts that use his iconic image and hero status to push products to kids.
The L.A. Times writer Elizabeth Kaye wrote an article about the subject and concluded that "After watching him play in the preseason, it's a moot point. Watch him and you'll get caught up, even if you don't especially want to, and his game will overwhelm the question of "should we?" and its cool, detached considerations."
She asserts that the qualities that made him an accused rapist are the very qualities that make him a great basketball player. She puts forward the opinion that "to use those talents requires that your own needs are met first. It requires an unshakable belief in one's abilities that we diminish by labeling it conceit or arrogance. We forget that selfishness and arrogance are job qualifications for an artist. Without arrogance, the canvas never fills with images of the lowly sunflower, the high note is never struck. There is no leaping into the air in defiance of gravity." In one paragraph Ms. Kaye links Bryant's athletic prowess to Van Gogh's artistic ability and the grace of the lyric soprano reaching for high notes.
Balderdash. Nice matters.
Mr. Bryant brought himself down all by himself. There was no Ken Starr, no twenty million dollar investigation, no struggle with mental illness.
If Mr. Bryant needs to meet his needs first in order to use his talents, what sort of needs is Ms. Kaye referring to? The need to treat a teenage girl like a hooker?
Unbelievably, Ms. Kaye calls rape an "abortive tryst." A woman has to have unbelievable courage to come forward with a rape charge in a society where the women are even more brutal and less supportive than the men.
Since when are "selfish and arrogance" "job qualifications for an artist"?! Apologist bullshit.
If people want to like Kobe Bryant in spite of what he has done, that's their business. If people want to imagine that Kobe Bryant is the innocent victim in this saga, then let them sleep with their cloudy illusions. But don't try to tell me that none of this matters because an artist must be a monster to be great.
We are succombing to a warped cynicism as a society. People find it easier to believe that a nineteen year old girl from a loving, supportive, middle class family is some sort of brilliantly devious and deviant, money-grubbing whore, rather than believe that one of the world's most successfully aggressive athletes didn't take no for an answer. He's aggressive enough to get rid of Shaq and Phil Jackson, two stars of basketball, but he's just a poor victim when he runs up against a teenage girl. Right. Teenage girls from supportive familes and small town backgrounds are never naive, never too trusting. No, they are as coldly calculating, as materialistic and unscrupulous as Don King. And if you believe that I have a fine plot of land in the Gobi desert that I would like to sell you.
And as to the argument that Mr. Bryant is just a basketball player, then he shouldn't mind losing all those plush endorsement contracts that use his iconic image and hero status to push products to kids.
International election?
I'm starting to hear from friends overseas. Europe is not impressed with our electing George W. Bush to a second term. Don't they have a sense of humor?
My friends from Asia have a more pragmatic approach. They like the stock market going up and disapprove of the war in Iraq.
I have heard that perhaps the US is beginning it's decline and in the future we may all be speaking Chinese in order to conduct business. At first this sounded quite humorous because most Americans barely speak English, but on second thought I decided I had better pull out my 'How-to write Chinese characters' books. If you know how to write 'Beautiful Prosperous Lilypad', my chosen Chinese name, send me a pictogram. Also, send one if you know how to write 'Leave me alone you Wart-nosed stinky toad'. (It's best to be prepared.)
My friends from Asia have a more pragmatic approach. They like the stock market going up and disapprove of the war in Iraq.
I have heard that perhaps the US is beginning it's decline and in the future we may all be speaking Chinese in order to conduct business. At first this sounded quite humorous because most Americans barely speak English, but on second thought I decided I had better pull out my 'How-to write Chinese characters' books. If you know how to write 'Beautiful Prosperous Lilypad', my chosen Chinese name, send me a pictogram. Also, send one if you know how to write 'Leave me alone you Wart-nosed stinky toad'. (It's best to be prepared.)
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
One bright spot
Barack Obama won a resounding landslide victory in the U.S. Senate race in Illinois. "His victory gives Dems one of their few bright spots on a dismal day."
I would definitely be thrilled about this newcomer, even if I didn't know him. He's got some great ideas and some real clout. As USA Today wrote, "He's a player..." and a major one at that. He's got national attention now... time will tell what he does with his opportunities.
It's great to see meritocracy at work.
Congratulations and good luck Obama!
I would definitely be thrilled about this newcomer, even if I didn't know him. He's got some great ideas and some real clout. As USA Today wrote, "He's a player..." and a major one at that. He's got national attention now... time will tell what he does with his opportunities.
It's great to see meritocracy at work.
Congratulations and good luck Obama!
Dark Korners
Four more funny fun-filled years of George W. Bush. The only positive thing I can think of to say is that at least John Kerry won't end up getting blamed for the mess that W has made. W is the first President since Hubert Humphrey during the Great Depression to have a net loss of jobs during his term as President.
At least he didn't get appointed by the Supreme Court this time.
George W has got no heart. I can't even bring myself to link to his victory speech. He's just sucked the heart out of me for the day.
At least he didn't get appointed by the Supreme Court this time.
George W has got no heart. I can't even bring myself to link to his victory speech. He's just sucked the heart out of me for the day.
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